Forecast of the impact and consequences of changes in the marketing environment

The forecast of the possible impact and changes in the marketing environment covers the analysis of retrospectives and forecasting the future situation based on the development of events.

Forecasting is carried out by extrapolation, modeling and intuition using the Delphi method, cross matrix, scenario development.

The Delphi method involves an individual survey of a certain group of experts regarding the development trend of a particular phenomenon. The results obtained are analyzed, combined, generalized. The summarization results are returned to the respondents.

The extrapolation method does not indicate the reason for the change in the factor, but illuminates the retrospective of its development. This method is effective when it is necessary to study the nature of changes.

The cross matrix is used to clarify the relationship between changes and their degrees of importance. Changes are placed on both sides of the matrix. This ensures that all factors are assigned the same output positions. Events are placed in chronological order and each field, except for the diagonal ones, is considered to determine:

- changes in the probability of occurrence of another factor;

- strengthen or weaken the effect of another factor;

- accelerate or delay the occurrence of another event.

Scripting method. A scenario is a kind of image of the future, which describes the events and conditions by which the situation is described. As a rule, several scenarios are developed, for which appropriate strategies are formulated. Using this method requires determining the number of project scenarios, who will develop them, which areas should be considered priorities, how much time to allocate for development.

Modeling. Once the relationship between cause and effect is established, econometric models are developed to predict economic change. In the event of changes in the conditions and position of factors, corresponding changes are made to the models.

Changes in the marketing environment

To determine the changes in the marketing environment, you can consider the following options:

1) Studying the environment - from external to internal changes

2) Studying the environment - from internal to external changes

In the first case, macro-environment factors are assessed, thereby determining their impact on the company's activities.

In the second case, the factors of the microenvironment and the internal environment of the company are evaluated, thereby taking into account the impact on the macroenvironment.

The process of identifying potential changes forms the basic principles for collecting information and registering changes:

The collection of information can be:

1) Permanent (system for collecting and processing information)

2) Regular (at regular intervals)

3) Random (irregular)

Marketing environment analysis

The sequence of the marketing environment analysis process:

1) Determination of environmental factors that affect the development of the company

2) Assessment of the state of the environment

3) Studying the specific factors of the marketing environment in which the company is located

4) Analysis of strategic positions

5) Analysis of marketing opportunities and threats (SWOT - analysis)

6) Selection and formation of a strategy

Marketing macro environment

The marketing macro environment is the factors that influence the marketing activities of a company.

The marketing macro environment includes:

1. Economic environment

2. Demographics

3. Political environment

4. Scientific and technological progress

5. Culture

6. Natural environment

Factor	Indicators
Economy	Phase of the economic cycle of the country Inflation rate Unemployment rate Gross national product and its dynamics Presence and level of commodity deficit The level of income and purchasing power of the population
Demographics	Population Territorial distribution of the population Level of urbanization Population migration Age composition of the population Birth and death rate Gender composition of the population Marital status of the population
Politics	Political structure Level of political and legislative stability Antitrust regulation Tax law State regulation of foreign trade
Science	Level of innovation activity Introduction of new technologies Directions for the concentration of technological efforts Increasing labor productivity New products
Culture	Social classes Social groups Culture Subculture
Natural environment	Ecology Availability and accessibility of raw materials and natural resources Energy cost

Marketing micro environment

The marketing microenvironment includes:

1) Suppliers
2) Company
3) Competitors
4) Marketing intermediaries
5) Clients
6) Contact Audiences

Marketing intermediaries can be in the following areas:

Logistics companies

Marketing agencies (consulting companies, advertising agencies, marketing research)

Financial intermediaries (banks, insurance companies, others)

In turn, the company includes:

1) Guide
2) Financial department
3) R&D department (research and development work)
4) Purchasing/sales department
5) Production
6) Accounting

A company's marketing environment can have the following types of contact audiences:

1) Financial institutions - banks, investment companies
2) mass media (mass media) - newspapers, magazines, radio, television
3) Public authorities
4) Public organizations
5) Local community
6) Society as a whole
7) Internal contact audiences

Depending on the company and its line of business, customers may fall into the following types of markets:

1) Consumer market (B2C)
2) Industrial market (B2B)
3) Trading and intermediary markets
4) Social security market (schools, hospitals, others)
5) Markets of state structures (state institutions, organizations)
6) International markets

Marketing environment

The marketing environment of a company is a combination of all factors that affect the development of a company and interaction with customers.

According to the definition by F. Kotler, the marketing environment is the subjects and forces that operate outside the company and affect the ability of its management to develop and maintain successful relationships with target customers.

The main task of studying the marketing environment is necessary to understand the position and prospects for the development of the company based on the needs of the target market, helps to determine the goals and capabilities of the company.

In the study of the marketing environment, marketing macro-environment and micro-environment are distinguished.