The forecast of the possible impact and changes in the marketing environment covers the analysis of retrospectives and forecasting the future situation based on the development of events.
Forecasting is carried out by extrapolation, modeling and intuition using the Delphi method, cross matrix, scenario development.
The Delphi method involves an individual survey of a certain group of experts regarding the development trend of a particular phenomenon. The results obtained are analyzed, combined, generalized. The summarization results are returned to the respondents.
The extrapolation method does not indicate the reason for the change in the factor, but illuminates the retrospective of its development. This method is effective when it is necessary to study the nature of changes.
The cross matrix is used to clarify the relationship between changes and their degrees of importance. Changes are placed on both sides of the matrix. This ensures that all factors are assigned the same output positions. Events are placed in chronological order and each field, except for the diagonal ones, is considered to determine:
- changes in the probability of occurrence of another factor;
- strengthen or weaken the effect of another factor;
- accelerate or delay the occurrence of another event.
Scripting method. A scenario is a kind of image of the future, which describes the events and conditions by which the situation is described. As a rule, several scenarios are developed, for which appropriate strategies are formulated. Using this method requires determining the number of project scenarios, who will develop them, which areas should be considered priorities, how much time to allocate for development.
Modeling. Once the relationship between cause and effect is established, econometric models are developed to predict economic change. In the event of changes in the conditions and position of factors, corresponding changes are made to the models.
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